## Deal No. 4

Here is a hand from the book Matchpoint Defense, by Jim Priebe (Masterpoint Press, 2006), that you might be interested in (page 36):

 J 4 K 8 6 K Q 10 2 Q 4 3 2 K 9 7 5 3 A Q 10 8 2 J 10 7 A Q 9 2 9 6 5 3 8 6 4 7 8 6 5 4 3 A J A K J 10 9 7 5

Priebe's main point is that if West leads the K against 5 on the auction (East deals) 1 – 2 – 4 – 5 – all pass, then East can give a suit preference signal for hearts, thus allowing EW to score the first 4 tricks.
From a Law of Total Tricks standpoint, one would expect 11 + 10 = 21 tricks, and yet best defense allows both NS and EW to score 9 tricks = 18 total tricks, a 3-trick over-estimation by the Law. Switch the K for the A, however, and NS score 2 extra tricks for a total of 20, because the K represents a control and allows NS to pitch the remaining heart loser on diamonds. Swith the A and the K and NS score 3 extra tricks for a total of 21.
Curiously, the SST + WP formula works exceptionally well with the EW hands (EW have 20 effective HCPs and a SS count of 4 = 9 tricks), but I don't think, in real life, the value of the A in the N hand, or the K with the A onside (modification #1) will be accounted for on this auction.

Sincerely,

Henry Sun
Benicia, CA