## Deal No. 2

I have an interesting hand that I'd like you to look at. I think your formula overvalues it. The hand is from The Complete Book on Balancing by Mike Lawrence, page 199, 4th hand. I will relist it here:

 K J 7 A 10 7 6 4 2 A 6 5 2 – Q 9 8 6 5 K 8 K 2 7 5 4 2

 West North East South 1 pass 1NT pass pass 2 3 3 pass 3 pass pass pass

I think your formula would suggest bidding 4. WP = 6+7+7 = 20. In fact it may be higher because the heart suit may drop an honor, or even 2.
SST = 0+2 = 2, with -1 for the 2nd Doubleton = 1. 13-1 = 12 tricks, 20 WP = no adjustment.
I think the reason it overvalues the hand is that the clubs must be ruffed with high trumps. This is a case where having a 9th trump is extremely valuable.
The solution is to use judgment, and not just plug and chug a formula. The North player should realize he will have to ruff Clubs with high trumps, thus incurring additional trump losers. Therefore he should downgrade his hand.
I find the formula helps me tie together what I've read in the 3 books 'The Complete book on' Hand Evaluation, Overcalls, and Balancing. It helps me try and visualize the distributions in the 4 hands, rather than just use a generic formula.

Thank you,
Brandon Einhorn